Total: 7–9
Cumulative Total: 42–42
I was ready to declare last week lost after a rocky start, but the late and very late (my nickname for Tuesday games) actually brought my record up to a respectable 8–8 and perhaps kept the momentum from a stellar week 13 going. Now, the NFL is trying to tame the latest COVID-19 surge with a hotly debated new testing protocol, and Tuesday games fortunately seem like a thing of the past as the new year approaches — here’s what I think will happen during the last week of 2021.
49ers @ Titans 8:20 Est. Thur.
For the past couple of weeks, games in which we can actually take an interest have aired on Thursday night in a pleasant change of pace. This time around, I expect a close matchup of dominant running games and stout defenses: I think the best bet here is probably the under, but that’s not what we’re here for. When it comes to picking the game, San Francisco being favored largely boils down to Derrick Henry’s absence, but Tennessee has performed admirably without him and on a short week I’ll always take the home team plus the points in such an even matchup.
Pick: Titans +3 ✅
Browns @ Packers 4:30 Est. Sat.
The Browns have not lived up to preseason expectations, and at 7–7 they sit outside the current AFC playoff picture. Cleveland’s work doesn’t get any easier this week, facing off against a Green Bay team that needs a win to stay in control of the race for the NFC’s top seed. I think we see a signature performance from Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field as he becomes the Packers all time leader in passing touchdowns (moving ahead of Brett Favre) and has the chance to make up for a win over the Ravens that was too close for comfort. In a hostile environment, I don’t think Cleveland has what it takes to stay within striking distance of the motivated Packers.
Pick: Packers -7.5 🅇
Colts @ Cardinals 8:15 Est. Sat.
Once hailed as the class of the league, the Cardinals have fallen from grace with consecutive losses. I think that coming back home to a marquee matchup, Arizona should come out firing on all cylinders ready for a redemption game. Meanwhile, the Colts looked very vulnerable last week as Carson Wentz had five completions and an interception against a Patriots team that should have been put away at halftime. By now, Kliff Kingsbury should have figured out, to a degree, how the offense can function without Deandre Hopkins and will likely have his team coached up to please a crowd full of fans.
Pick: Cardinals -1 🅇
Lions @ Falcons 1:00 Est. Sun.
That the point spread for a game between a team in playoff contention and a 2–11–1 team is less than a touchdown is a testament to just how weirdly last week unfolded with the Lions blowout of the Cardinals. I expect that Detroit regresses to the mean at the Mercedes-Benz dome, and Atlanta is eager to prove itself to a home crowd likely disgruntled by a bad road loss to the 49ers. At that point, Atlanta and Matt Ruam probably have what it takes to stay in front of the Lions by a full score and cover.
Pick: Falcons -5.5 🅇
Ravens @ Bengals 1:00 Est. Sun.
The Bengals finally broke through the challenging stretch they’d had over the last month with a hard fought win over the Browns, and I expect that momentum to keep going as they return to Cincinnati. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens did get close to Green Bay last week, but only because Green Bay played sloppily after getting a commanding lead. In a divisional matchup, I’d expect more focus, especially from the home team. Moreover, the Ravens have to deal with tremendous uncertainty at quarterback while Joe Burrow is almost at 4000 yards on the season. Taking into account all these variables, I expect a comfortable win for Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals -3 ✅
Rams @ Vikings 1:00 Est. Sun.
Despite the Rams’ sputtering in November, wire to wire they’ve been one of the best teams in the league while the Vikings look like world beaters one week and lose to the Lions the next. Given this difference in consistency and that Minnesota’s dome environment is ideally suited to LA’s high-flying offense, I would think that the Rams can certainly win by a field goal, especially now that all of their talent seems to be clicking.
Pick: Rams -3 ✅
Bills @ Patriots 1:00 Est. Sun.
There’s no way the Patriots lose this game, right? Bill Belichick will be riding New England hard after an embarrassing loss to Indianapolis, and the franchise with the greatest dynasty in the history of sports to its name won’t give up the division crown for the second year in a row on its home turf. Overall, while the Bills may have the Patriots at quarterback, the Pats are just better everywhere else; I think the Bills Mafia waits at least another year to celebrate finally dethroning the evil empire.
Pick: Patriots -2.5 🅇
Jaguars @ Jets 1:00 Est. Sun.
This is a game between two teams that are so bad, the odds makers decided to not even attach a line to it. My pick here ultimately comes down to stability: Jacksonville didn’t get the expected boost from a new coach because the franchise is in such disarray, while Robert Saleh seems to have at least brought some competency to New York. After the Jets put up a fight against a good Miami team last week, I think they can certainly pull through a win against the Jaguars this week, especially at home.
Pick: Jets ✅
Giants @ Eagles 1:00 Est. Sun.
After briefly challenging for the division crown, it doesn’t seem like the Eagles have what it takes to win it and their last two wins are against the Jets and the COVID-decimated Football Team. Admittedly, the Giants haven’t been great this year either but they still managed to beat the Eagles when they played earlier this season. 9.5 points is too large of a point spread for any notoriously close NFC East matchup, so I’m comfortable picking New York given the way these teams played each other the last time around.
Pick: Giants +9.5 🅇
Buccaneers @ Panthers 1:00 Est. Sun.
Carolina has the Saints to thank for what Tom Brady is about to do to it. I expect the GOAT to go scorched Earth against a division rival after the Saints frustrated him for the umpteenth time in his Tampa Bay career. Despite the loss of Chris Godwin, I think this anger should be enough to propel the Bucs to an easy win against a Panthers team that is now 5–9 and can’t seem to put anything together.
Pick: Buccaneers -10 ✅
Chargers @ Texans 1:00 Est. Sun.
If it weren’t for being in the same division as Jacksonville, the Texans would have one win this year. In the meantime, the Chargers have probably played even better than than their 8–6 record and are a few terrible 4th down calls away from being in the lead of the competitive, trying AFC West. I think Justin Hebert lights up the bottom-five Houston defense, while Houston will probably have a tough time scoring, even at home, with its 32nd ranked defense. Expect LA to win big.
Pick: Chargers -10 🅇
Bears @ Seahawks 4:05 Est. Sun.
Before running into the Rams, Seattle was starting to put it together after an awful start to the season uncharacteristic of the potent Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson tandem. Conversely, the Bears have been a trainwreck from start to finish, with some Justin Fields flashes being Chicago’s only bright spots. I think the Seahawks, who are far superior on paper, can easily win by a possession, especially at home.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5 🅇
Steelers @ Chiefs 4:25 Est. Sun.
The Steelers have been near impossible to pick this year, tying the Lions but beating the Titans in a slug fest on the road a few weeks later. But, I think heading into Arrowhead to face KC on a 7 game win streak without Devin Bush and several others now on the COVID list is too daunting a task even for this battle tested Pittsburgh team. If Travis Kelce’s overtime touchdown is a sign of things to come, Patrick Mahomes and co. may finally be getting their big play ability back. That should be very troubling for the rest of the AFC.
Pick: Chiefs -7 ✅
Broncos @ Raiders 4:25 Est. Sun.
After being a Denver-denier for weeks, I’ve finally come around on the Broncos: they’re a legitimate playoff contender and have a defense that ranks third in the league in points allowed. Their division rival, the Raiders, on the other hand, have been awful since they’ve been hit with a wave of scandals and I doubt they have what it takes to beat this gritty Denver team with an even point spread.
Pick: Broncos 🅇
Cowboys @ Football Team 8:20 Est. Sun.
The endless number of NFC East games in prime time continues to bother NFL teams outside of the four media markets those teams represent, especially when it’s a matchup this lopsided. Though these games usually make picking an 11 point favorite unfeasible, the Football Team is still ravaged by COVID and the Cowboys are rounding into form as a ten win team and a real threat come January. So, given the way the Cowboys dominated the Giants last week, I think they should have something close to a repeat performance on Sunday night football.
Pick: Cowboys -11 ✅
Dolphins @ Saints 8:15 Est. Sun.
These two clubs, both on the outside looking in, have flashed in stretches but played quite badly in others. The same can be said for their quarterbacks, with Tua playing inconsistently for Miami and the combination of Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Jameis Winston making it so that New Orleans fans never knew what to expect. At the end of the day, given both teams’ up and down play, I have a little bit more faith in the home team coached by the experienced Sean Payton, who might yet have a few tricks up his sleeve against impressive but young Brian Flores.
Pick: Saints -3 🅇
