Total: 4–2
Cumulative Total: 66–53–1
It’s finally time for the playoffs, and a stellar performance last week brings me into the postseason on a hot streak. Hopefully, I can keep that momentum going in a slate of six (!) exciting, nationally televised matchups available for our viewing pleasure over the entire long weekend. Here’s how I think they go down.
Raiders @ Bengals 4:30 Est. Sat.
The last time these two squads played, I picked the Raiders and got completely burned. Well, I’ve changed my ways! The Bengals are so much more talented even though they have the same record as the Raiders. The Cicni offense especially brings an unrivaled amount of firepower: even though now that Ja’Marr Chase had only eight yards last time around, the squad still put up 32 points so even more scoring may be in order. The Raiders, meanwhile, went from being a snake bit team suffering from a string of scandals to miraculously getting the first wild card spot in the AFC. Ultimately, though, as Raiders fans know, being native to Las Vegas, your luck eventually runs out and I see that happening as Derrick Carr and co. arrive in “the jungle.” This talent gap is compounded by neither team having very much playoff experience, thus homefield should be a big advantage for Cincinnati. I think the Bengals win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Bengals -5.5 ✅
Patriots @ Bills 4:30 Est. Sat.
This divisional rivalry game is perhaps the matchup where both clubs collectively have the most on the line, each trying to prove that they are the rightful owners of the AFC East for the next decade. Evaluating this game player for player, one would have no choice but to pick Buffalo. However, during a frigid night at Orchard Park, I think two factors that favor New England will ultimately keep the game very close. First of all, Bill Belichick in a cold weather playoff game. ‘Nuff said. And secondly, in games such as this one, the run game tends to become pivotal as it did during these teams’ matchup, and the Patriots are better at both running the ball and stopping the run. Of course, the greatness of Josh Allen, or at least his obvious advantage over Mac Jones, could negate all of this analysis; good quarterbacks often put teams on their backs. But, I think on balance, the Patriots and the points is a solid bet.
Pick: Patriots +4.5 🅇
BONUS PICK: Did anyone making this over/under open up the forecast before posting it? Under 44 seems like a near guarantee given the conditions. UPDATE: We don’t talk about this prediction. I’m swearing off “bonus predictions” and sticking to the blog’s mission.
Eagles @ Buccaneers 1:00 Est. Sun.
In a season filled with uncertainty, various upsets, and all sorts of surprises, one thing has been rock solid: Tampa Bay plays lights out at home, with its only loss coming against a New Orleans team that has its number for whatever reason. Moreover, In a pressurized environment, the choice between Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts is a simple one if favor of the latter, and this comparison probably applies to most of the seasoned Buccaneers personnel as compared to a relatively young Eagles team. I don’t really see an out for Phili here: this game could be over quickly and will almost certainly have one of the widest margins of the weekend.
Pick: Buccaneers -8.5 ✅
49ers @ Cowboys 1:00 Est. Sun.
Despite some ups and downs, the 49ers are back in the playoffs and the Kyle Shanahan-Jimmy Garoppolo duo continues to churn out wins even if they aren’t pretty. I think their record, somewhat weaker than that of the Cowboys, reflects playing in a strong NFC West, and that is born out by SanFran ranking 6th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which takes into account quality of opponent. At the end of the day, the 49ers are slightly more experienced and have a clear edge in coaching: Mike McCarthy impresses no one as the Cowboys head signal caller. Both those factors always make a noticable difference come playoff time, and are enough to take them with the points in this game that turns back the clock on one of football's all time greatest historical rivalries.
Pick: 49ers +3 ✅
Steelers @ Chiefs 1:00 Est. Sun.
Kansas City will most definitely win this game, so the question becomes how badly can it blow out Pittsburgh? I think that while the Chiefs win comfortably, the Steelers can keep it close enough, perhaps even with some garbage time points, to prevent them from covering. Ben Roethlisberger‘s potential last game has to inundate Pittsburgh with some additional motivation, and after getting so badly beat during his last trip to Arrowhead I expect Mike Tomlin to make some defensive adjustments. He certainly has the personnel to make a diminished Patrick Mahomes somewhat uncomfortable, and that combined with a Steelers offense that seems to have found itself in some recent clutch situations should stop this game from getting too out of hand.
Pick: Steelers +12.5 🅇
Cardinals @ Rams 1:00 Est. Sun.
After starting the season 10–2, the Cardinals lost four of their last five and gave up the division to the Rams. At the same time, following their much-discussed November slump, the Rams are a commendable 5–1. Unfortunately for Arizona, that shift may simply reflect a regression to the mean and Los Angeles finally playing up to its full potential. That means, however, that in this game the Rams are facing all the pressure in the world to capitalize on the talent they acquired this year while the Cardinals are largely already a year ahead of expectations and playing with house money. I think that motivation disparity, combined with the game’s setting at SoFi and the playoff mettle of Sean McVay should be enough for the Rams to win by around a touchdown, especially after it seems like they already cracked the code on beating the Cards during their week 14 matchup in Phoenix.
Pick: Rams -4 ✅
